Not Dull Anymore

Our forecast was for DOW 11,300 before 07/31/10. We hit DOW 11,258 on 04/26/10 before we started to go back down. That's 42 points short of our target 3 months before our time estimate, that's pretty good. Basically we have hit our target because I consider price to be more important than time. Since then the market has retraced a lot of that move. On Friday (05/21/10) the DOW touched a low of 9,918 before staging a nice move up.

There's lots of support at that level so a bounce off that number is not a surprise. For all intent and purpose, hitting our target so early, I am willing to believe that there is more additional upside here. This market is trying to get some strength together for another push higher.

My new forecast is for this low to hold (within 100 points) and move to the neighborhood of 11,500 before the end of July. If this market does not hold this low, we may have some issues to deal with.