2015 Recap and 2016 Forecast

The U.S. Stock Market Closes the Year Under Some Pressure

Well, from what I can tell there’s bad news and some other kind of news.  I’ll just give it to you straight.

First off, if you were 100% invested in the total U.S. stock market all of 2015 as I was, you saw record highs and then steep drawdowns.  Here’s the bad news, according to my calculations we finished basically even for the year.  I calculate a gain of approximately 0.4%, all that work for NOT a whole lot of gain.

If you had all of your long term money in a money market account (like a federal money market fund) you earned somewhere around 0.05%.  If you had all of your long term money in a bond market account (like an intermediate government bond fund) you earned somewhere around 1.6%.  All in all, not a good year for the long term investor.  Here’s some other kind of news, my studies indicate we may be in for another pull back.  I use a specific type of study/indicator that is constructed in parts.  We build it in parts so that we don’t panic over noise and we don’t stick around once we get conformation.  As of this writing the market has completed 2 of the 3 parts needed to indicate that another drawdown is at hand.

So, I told you back in October that we needed to clear 18,400 in the Dow before we could start to have additional faith in the continuation of this bull market.  As we have not been able to do that and we now have seen the longest leg of growth (40+ months) in this market since the bull started and we see a real possibility of a sell signal, we have cause to be diligent.

Let me tell you what I am going to do, I am going to continue to leave all of my long term investment capital invested in a total U.S. stock market mutual fund.  I will continue to invest any additional money I may have into a total U.S. stock market mutual fund.  If we get a single close, on a monthly basis, below 15,300 in the Dow. I will be taking additional measures. 

I will let you know what additional measures I will be taking if and when it becomes necessary.

Stay tuned.

In Wake of the Drawdown

Ok so here we are with a pretty sizable retracement.  We went from a high in the Dow of 18,351 down to a low of 15,377 before this thing stopped and turned.  We came within 623 points of our projected high, a high that we called for back in 2013.  There is no reason to change that projection.  This economy has been doing an excellent job and folk that have not been invested in the stock market have totally missed out on an excellent return.  Remember, we've been long since March of 2009 and if you look at a long term chart you will see that we've been nothing but up with the occasional pull back.

What I'm seeing right now is this market needed to rest and get some strength together before going higher.  But hold your horses, we still may have some drama in front of us.

We need to close above 18,400 in the Dow before we can say we are out of the woods and we may or may not get there in 2015.  But, if we get that close, we may just be on our way to blow past my 2013 prediction.  Again, don't count you chickens before they hatch.

I'll keep you posted on what I'm doing.  Right now, I am still long the American stock market with 100% of my assets invested in a no-load, total stock market index mutual fund, like the Wilshire 5000.  I am also dollar cost averaging any new money into the Wilshire 5000.

Shoot me an email or post your thoughts if you are so inclined.

2014 Recap and 2015 Outlook

So another year has come and gone.  I hope 2014 was a profitable year for you and if you follow this blog, it was a profitable year for you.
By being all in the total stock market your 2014 return was 11.48%.
That's good money.  We have not yet reached our target of 18,974 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average but nothing in the charts at this time would suggest that we are done with the up move.
So guess what?  Yep, I will continue to dollar cost average any investment money that I have into any no load mutual fund that mirrors a United States of America total stock market index, like the Wilshire 5000.  That's all I have for you right now.  Let me know if you have questions.  I will post again when there is a need to.  Have a happy, healthy and prosperous 2015.

2013 Year End Report and 2014 Outlook

Ok, no surprises here.  We got exactly what we were expecting.  The market told us it was not turning and it did indeed go higher.  As long as you can understand the language of the markets you will always be on the correct side.
But we don't get cocky, we don't get greedy.  We take our time and we accept what the market gives us.
I've said it before and I'll say it again because it's worth repeating, there is a correct time to be in a particular market depending on the correct economic conditions and all of 2013 the condition were right for us to be all in the total stock market.
How did we do?
If you were invested in the total stock market all of 2013 like I was your portfolio should have grown by about 33.4%.  That's good money.


We have no reason to believe that we need to be anyplace else in 2014.  Right now the market is telling us it wants to go higher.  My early forecast of 18,974 in the Dow still stands.
So until the market tells me other wise I will continue to dollar cost average any and all investment money that I have into the total stock market.  As always, I would only invest in a no-load mutual fund that mirrors the total stock market index.


That's all for now.  When things change, I'll let you know.
Happy and prosperous 2014 to you and yours.

Let's Go Higher

Well, we've arrived at the last projection and surpassed that.  We are not surprised at surpassing the last projection because I can't remember if I posted my long term projecton in an earlier post but even if I did it probably warrants reposting.
My long term projection is for 18,974 in the DOW.
My near term projection is for 16,320 in the DOW.
I will continue to dollar cost average any long term investment money into a total stock market index fund.
Once we hit the 16,320 area, I will post again.
Thanks for reading, see you next time.

Right Now

Well, this will be short and clean.  We are not concerned with the stock market right now.  We believe it will move higher.  My near term target is 15,920 in the Dow.  Currently, we are backing up but you expect to back up a little bit in August. 

This market should find support around 14,973 in the Dow and move higher from there.

I will continue to be all in the total stock market and dollar cost average, on a monthly basis,  any additional long term investment money into the total stock market.

That's all I've got for you right now, thanks for reading.

2012 Year End Report and 2013 Market Outlook

2012 has come and gone and we are left with another profitable year.

We began the year at Dow 12,217, reached a high of 13,662 on the Dow and settled at Dow 13,104.

Now remember, we time the markets using the Dow Jones Industrial Average but we only invest in the total market (when it’s the right climate for stocks).  Using our strategy we realized an approximate 17% gain in 2012.  Had we not decided to ride out the baby drawdown (10/05 – 11/16) we could have picked up a couple of extra points but all in all, 17% is pretty damn good.  I’ll take it.

In contrast, Bond investors earned almost 4% and Money Market investors earned about 0.04%.

So what am I expecting now?  The market is telling me to stay long of stocks.  If you listen you can hear it saying “Stay long, I’m not turning.  Stay long, I’m not turning”.  Well not turning soon anyway.  I am confidently expecting  14,115 in the Dow before we need to pay any more attention.

I will continue to invest any long term money I have in the total stock market.

I’ll let you know, right here, if something changes.

Thanks!