I Beg to Differ

I was just reading RS of Houston who if you don't know is a popular trader who publishes a newsletter. He said in his letter that "...this afternoon's sharp reversal was right on schedule and we view see this as confirmation of the beginning of a very nice correction."

Well, I beg to differ, my analysis tells me that we should be headed a little bit higher before any sort of pullback. As a matter of fact I see the Dow Jones Industrial Average going to around 10,255 by October 30.

As of this date the Dow has closed at 10,081.

I guess we'll see what's what and who's how in the next week or so.

3rd Quarter Recap 2009

The market has closed the week on a down note with the Dow posting a high of 9834.
This week marks the 2nd straight week of drawdown in the Dow. However, I still believe the 8877 area is still very strong support and the market is trading well above its 200 day moving average.

We have advanced some 3400 points in the Dow since the bottom in March and approximately 1100 points of that is what we have captured since we started to DCA back in.

If the market is going to challenge that support level of 8877 we should know by the 3rd week in October. Outside of that my analysis shows a run up to about 10,500.

So I am going to continue to DCA into the total stock market.

Done with MRGE

Well, that was a crappy bust. I bought this issue (1000 shares) at my price ($3.81) expecting $5.10 by end of July. The highest it got to was only $4.78. I got out at my stop ($3.43).
Let that be a lesson to you, don't buy stocks priced under $10.00. Regardless of volume. I suspect traders saw my resting buy @ $3.81 and filled it thinking they were going to make money on the way down. That didn't happen, I took their money and was glad to do it. But I was so married to my exit at $5.10 that I........well, you know.

More MRGE

So today MRGE closed at $3.52. This market has basically gone into a channel with the indicator of choice not issuing any signals. Sooooooooo, I am going to hold this for a while yet (against my own advise) and see what happens.
Tune in next week, same bat-time, same bat-channel.

Here We Go

So this is the 2nd week of trading above 8877 in the Dow. I'm now DCA over 12 months to get back in to this stock market.
8877 should be strong support. All major markets are trading above the 200 day moving average and everything looks ship shape.

The Total Market

This market has turned up. The low appears to be 8087. If this market goes through the resistance at 8877, my forecast for 7700 (approx) will be negated. Any close above 8877 in the Dow on a weekly basis will be enough strength to begin to dollar cost average back into the total stock market.

MRGE

OK so this morning, before the open, I put in an order to Buy MRGE at $3.81 and the low of the day, today, turns out to be $3.81. I was filled and the market rallied and closed at $4.06. I am now long this market from $3.81. The position is currently in profit.
There is still some danger for drawdown but I have placed my stop as stated in yesterday's blog.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.