2012 Year End Report and 2013 Market Outlook

2012 has come and gone and we are left with another profitable year.

We began the year at Dow 12,217, reached a high of 13,662 on the Dow and settled at Dow 13,104.

Now remember, we time the markets using the Dow Jones Industrial Average but we only invest in the total market (when it’s the right climate for stocks).  Using our strategy we realized an approximate 17% gain in 2012.  Had we not decided to ride out the baby drawdown (10/05 – 11/16) we could have picked up a couple of extra points but all in all, 17% is pretty damn good.  I’ll take it.

In contrast, Bond investors earned almost 4% and Money Market investors earned about 0.04%.

So what am I expecting now?  The market is telling me to stay long of stocks.  If you listen you can hear it saying “Stay long, I’m not turning.  Stay long, I’m not turning”.  Well not turning soon anyway.  I am confidently expecting  14,115 in the Dow before we need to pay any more attention.

I will continue to invest any long term money I have in the total stock market.

I’ll let you know, right here, if something changes.

Thanks!

Mid Year Report, Sort of

I don't have much to say.  I missed my Dow 14,404 somewhere around July.
The best we were able to do was 13,338 back in May.  As of this writing we stand at Dow 13,306.  Not to worry, I still see the market hitting new highs, maybe just after the election, we'll see.

So until my next post, I will continue to dollar cost average any and all of my long term investment money into the total stock market. I'll post again when it is warranted.

Thanks for reading.

2011 Year End Recap and 2012 Forecast

Ok, here we are at the end of 2011. Looks like we will finish around 6% to the good over last year. That's ok as it was the best we could do of all the vehicles we use in our long term portfolio. All in all not a bad year considering the ups and downs of this market.

We found our predicted support at DOW 10,860 and stayed the course. Just to be clear, in order to exit this market we were looking for 2 consecutive weekly closes below 10,860, we didn't get that so we are still all in. The market moved up from that support as we expected.

So, what about 2012? In the short term I'm expecting DOW 14,404 sometime around July 2012. The important part is taking out DOW 12,876, if we can't do that it might mean trouble but I'm not really worried, the market will tell us what to do when the time comes. So until further notice I will continue to dollar cost average any and all of my long term investment money into the total stock market. I'll post again when it is warranted.

Thanks for reading. Have a happy, healthy and prosperous 2012.

It's Getting Hot in Here

Lots of action lately. That minor top/sell signal that I mentioned in my last post has run down against good support that I talked about (I said it was around DOW 11K), that support is exactly DOW 10,860. We have dipped below that on the daily chart with oversold Stoch. So I believe that we are pausing to gather some strength together and move higher. However, if we have a weekly close below 10,860 in the DOW, I will be moving to all cash until we rally. Stay tuned.

What to do Now?

As you most likely know, the Dow dropped 500 points yesterday resulting in the loss of all of your gains for 2011 .
I looked at my charts last week and saw a minor top. Yes a minor top on the daily and weekly charts. There was nothing on the monthly charts. So the way I see this thing, we expected a pull back to some support. That support could be as low as 11,000 in the DOW.
My point is I don't think we have an end to the bull yet. So I am staying all in (the total stock market).

Summertime Report

We seem to be progressing in a manor not uncommon or unexpected. A quick check of the Wilshire 5000 index shows a retracement to support 1st discovered in March 2011. We jumped off that and appear to be headed, in the short term, to around 14,600 (we are currently sitting around 13,700). Maybe getting there sometime before mid September. This would translate to around 12,900 in the Dow (currently at 12,100). So just keep dollar cost averaging into the total stock market and you should make money. Chit-chat later.

It's OK to be a Bull or a Bear but not a Chicken or Pig

So I was too chicken to call time on my last price where all along I thought price would be hit before April of 2011. Well, I will now go back to forecasting time along with price. Only because it's so impressive when you hit it. We got our 12,273 in the Dow, but the pull back hasn't happened yet.
It does not matter. There is still lots of upside left in this market. This is what I'm calling now, some zigs and zags but overall up. I expect Dow 15,000 before End of 2012. We are currently sitting at Dow 12,391. Stay tuned and fully invested in the total stock market.