2013 Year End Report and 2014 Outlook

Ok, no surprises here.  We got exactly what we were expecting.  The market told us it was not turning and it did indeed go higher.  As long as you can understand the language of the markets you will always be on the correct side.
But we don't get cocky, we don't get greedy.  We take our time and we accept what the market gives us.
I've said it before and I'll say it again because it's worth repeating, there is a correct time to be in a particular market depending on the correct economic conditions and all of 2013 the condition were right for us to be all in the total stock market.
How did we do?
If you were invested in the total stock market all of 2013 like I was your portfolio should have grown by about 33.4%.  That's good money.


We have no reason to believe that we need to be anyplace else in 2014.  Right now the market is telling us it wants to go higher.  My early forecast of 18,974 in the Dow still stands.
So until the market tells me other wise I will continue to dollar cost average any and all investment money that I have into the total stock market.  As always, I would only invest in a no-load mutual fund that mirrors the total stock market index.


That's all for now.  When things change, I'll let you know.
Happy and prosperous 2014 to you and yours.

Let's Go Higher

Well, we've arrived at the last projection and surpassed that.  We are not surprised at surpassing the last projection because I can't remember if I posted my long term projecton in an earlier post but even if I did it probably warrants reposting.
My long term projection is for 18,974 in the DOW.
My near term projection is for 16,320 in the DOW.
I will continue to dollar cost average any long term investment money into a total stock market index fund.
Once we hit the 16,320 area, I will post again.
Thanks for reading, see you next time.

Right Now

Well, this will be short and clean.  We are not concerned with the stock market right now.  We believe it will move higher.  My near term target is 15,920 in the Dow.  Currently, we are backing up but you expect to back up a little bit in August. 

This market should find support around 14,973 in the Dow and move higher from there.

I will continue to be all in the total stock market and dollar cost average, on a monthly basis,  any additional long term investment money into the total stock market.

That's all I've got for you right now, thanks for reading.

2012 Year End Report and 2013 Market Outlook

2012 has come and gone and we are left with another profitable year.

We began the year at Dow 12,217, reached a high of 13,662 on the Dow and settled at Dow 13,104.

Now remember, we time the markets using the Dow Jones Industrial Average but we only invest in the total market (when it’s the right climate for stocks).  Using our strategy we realized an approximate 17% gain in 2012.  Had we not decided to ride out the baby drawdown (10/05 – 11/16) we could have picked up a couple of extra points but all in all, 17% is pretty damn good.  I’ll take it.

In contrast, Bond investors earned almost 4% and Money Market investors earned about 0.04%.

So what am I expecting now?  The market is telling me to stay long of stocks.  If you listen you can hear it saying “Stay long, I’m not turning.  Stay long, I’m not turning”.  Well not turning soon anyway.  I am confidently expecting  14,115 in the Dow before we need to pay any more attention.

I will continue to invest any long term money I have in the total stock market.

I’ll let you know, right here, if something changes.

Thanks!

Mid Year Report, Sort of

I don't have much to say.  I missed my Dow 14,404 somewhere around July.
The best we were able to do was 13,338 back in May.  As of this writing we stand at Dow 13,306.  Not to worry, I still see the market hitting new highs, maybe just after the election, we'll see.

So until my next post, I will continue to dollar cost average any and all of my long term investment money into the total stock market. I'll post again when it is warranted.

Thanks for reading.

2011 Year End Recap and 2012 Forecast

Ok, here we are at the end of 2011. Looks like we will finish around 6% to the good over last year. That's ok as it was the best we could do of all the vehicles we use in our long term portfolio. All in all not a bad year considering the ups and downs of this market.

We found our predicted support at DOW 10,860 and stayed the course. Just to be clear, in order to exit this market we were looking for 2 consecutive weekly closes below 10,860, we didn't get that so we are still all in. The market moved up from that support as we expected.

So, what about 2012? In the short term I'm expecting DOW 14,404 sometime around July 2012. The important part is taking out DOW 12,876, if we can't do that it might mean trouble but I'm not really worried, the market will tell us what to do when the time comes. So until further notice I will continue to dollar cost average any and all of my long term investment money into the total stock market. I'll post again when it is warranted.

Thanks for reading. Have a happy, healthy and prosperous 2012.

It's Getting Hot in Here

Lots of action lately. That minor top/sell signal that I mentioned in my last post has run down against good support that I talked about (I said it was around DOW 11K), that support is exactly DOW 10,860. We have dipped below that on the daily chart with oversold Stoch. So I believe that we are pausing to gather some strength together and move higher. However, if we have a weekly close below 10,860 in the DOW, I will be moving to all cash until we rally. Stay tuned.