Not Done Yet

Not a whole lot to say here. We did not get to our 11,500 level in the DOW but that's OK.
This market is still technically valid and bullish. We will keep adding money to it via DCA.
Although I have heard one major investment advisor proclaim a buying opportunity recently meaning everybody should go all in. Talk to you later.

Summertime Markets

This market looks to be building a base of good support in the 9700 area of the Dow.
What I'm looking for is more upside. It's been tough getting to where we want to go because the world is so financially intertwined.
You know, when almost any country burps, it seems all countries hiccup.
In any event, my last forecast still stands.
See you next month.

Not Dull Anymore

Our forecast was for DOW 11,300 before 07/31/10. We hit DOW 11,258 on 04/26/10 before we started to go back down. That's 42 points short of our target 3 months before our time estimate, that's pretty good. Basically we have hit our target because I consider price to be more important than time. Since then the market has retraced a lot of that move. On Friday (05/21/10) the DOW touched a low of 9,918 before staging a nice move up.

There's lots of support at that level so a bounce off that number is not a surprise. For all intent and purpose, hitting our target so early, I am willing to believe that there is more additional upside here. This market is trying to get some strength together for another push higher.

My new forecast is for this low to hold (within 100 points) and move to the neighborhood of 11,500 before the end of July. If this market does not hold this low, we may have some issues to deal with.

Dull and Boring

This market as represented by the Dow is continuing to move toward our projected short term target of 11,300. There is nothing new for me to report. This market is dull and boring, just as it should be, just like we like it to be. I will continue to DCA into the total stock market.

How Do We Look Today

Looking at the Dow on a weekly chart we got a real nice move off the 23.6 FIB line and I would not be surprised to see us take out the 10,729 high this week. So we will just keep doing what we're doing and DCA into the total market.

The End of the Recession

Well according to the definition of economic recession (2 consecutive calendar quarters of negative GDP) we are no longer in a recession. GDP numbers released on Friday show the 2nd straight quarter of positive GDP. This last quarter even grew faster than analyst predicted.

So what is the market saying? Well, we've been headed down the last few weeks but I think we still have upside potential. I have been going back and forth between calling for a pull back ending between Dow 10,300 and Dow 10,000. Look like we are in that area where I expect the Dow to turn higher (market closed Friday at 10,067).

I think we will turn any day now and resume our run up to Dow 11,000 or there abouts.
We are currently building a sell signal in the bond market, we are currently NOT building a sell signal in the stock market.

I'll keep posting AND I'll keep buying the total stock market.

A New Year, A new Decade

The total stock market as bench marked by the Wilshire 5000 index gave us a total return in 2009 of 29%. Not too bad. Since I last posted, the high in the Dow reached 10,580. I see no danger of significant drawdown. We will continue to invest into the total stock market on a monthly basis. Although we may see an occasional pullback, overall, I'm looking for more upside as we go forward into 2010. I see the Dow hitting 11,300 before the end of July.
Happy 2010 to you and yours.