Let’s Do It Again !!

As I write this we have just closed the month of November 2016.  The DOW closed at 19,123.

This is good stuff, I said it in November 2013 and said it again in July of 2016, I see no reason to not be all in the total American stock market.

I have not been issued a sell signal, just conformation of additional upside action.

Now that we reached my prior forecast of 18,974, it’s time for a new forecast.

Here you go:  I am now expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to trade at 20,193.


There you have it.


Once we get there, I will provide additional  insight.  If something crazy happens, I will also let you know what I think the market will do and what I plan to do about it.

For now I will continue to invest any long term money that I have, using dollar cost averaging, in a no-load, mutual fund that mirrors the complete U.S. stock market (Wilshire 5000).

Thanks for visiting, don’t be a stranger.

Not Over Yet!

This post will be short and without drama.  Back in November of 2013 I advised you, right here (look for yourself) that I did not see any reason for not being all in the total U.S. stock market.

My projection back then was for a high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of  18,974.

We flirted a little while with a possible sell signal coming in prior to that but that sell signal never materialized.  I later mentioned that we would be careful until we had a monthly close in the Dow of  greater than 18,400.  So on the last day of trading in July 2016 we closed on a monthly basis at 18,432.

My forecast of 18,974 has been changed to a minimum, meaning I now expect the Dow to trade at 18,974 at a minimum.  Once it clears that price, I will offer an additional forecast.  If something happens in the mean time, I will also post.

For now I will continue to invest any long term money that I have, using dollar cost averaging, in a no-load, mutual fund that mirrors the complete U.S. stock market index (Wilshire 5000).

2015 Recap and 2016 Forecast

The U.S. Stock Market Closes the Year Under Some Pressure

Well, from what I can tell there’s bad news and some other kind of news.  I’ll just give it to you straight.

First off, if you were 100% invested in the total U.S. stock market all of 2015 as I was, you saw record highs and then steep drawdowns.  Here’s the bad news, according to my calculations we finished basically even for the year.  I calculate a gain of approximately 0.4%, all that work for NOT a whole lot of gain.

If you had all of your long term money in a money market account (like a federal money market fund) you earned somewhere around 0.05%.  If you had all of your long term money in a bond market account (like an intermediate government bond fund) you earned somewhere around 1.6%.  All in all, not a good year for the long term investor.  Here’s some other kind of news, my studies indicate we may be in for another pull back.  I use a specific type of study/indicator that is constructed in parts.  We build it in parts so that we don’t panic over noise and we don’t stick around once we get conformation.  As of this writing the market has completed 2 of the 3 parts needed to indicate that another drawdown is at hand.

So, I told you back in October that we needed to clear 18,400 in the Dow before we could start to have additional faith in the continuation of this bull market.  As we have not been able to do that and we now have seen the longest leg of growth (40+ months) in this market since the bull started and we see a real possibility of a sell signal, we have cause to be diligent.

Let me tell you what I am going to do, I am going to continue to leave all of my long term investment capital invested in a total U.S. stock market mutual fund.  I will continue to invest any additional money I may have into a total U.S. stock market mutual fund.  If we get a single close, on a monthly basis, below 15,300 in the Dow. I will be taking additional measures. 

I will let you know what additional measures I will be taking if and when it becomes necessary.

Stay tuned.